Italy vs Türkiye Prediction & Preview

Italy
Moderate · 73%
UEFA Nations League
Finished
3:1

Prediction

Italy68%
Draw19%
Türkiye13%
Pick: Italy
Confidence
73

AI Analysis

Italy are strongly favored to win this encounter against Türkiye, primarily due to their superior league position and significantly better recent form and goal-scoring statistics. Türkiye enters the match with a deeply concerning run of three straight losses, struggling both defensively and in attack.

Our AI breaks down recent form, head-to-head history, expected goals and team news to explain the pick. It weighs home advantage, injury impact and market movement to surface where the value sits — and where the risk hides.

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Prediction History3 versions

Italy are strongly favored to win this encounter against Türkiye, primarily due to their superior league position and significantly better recent form and goal-scoring statistics. Türkiye enters the match with a deeply concerning run of three straight losses, struggling both defensively and in attack.

5 Oct · 18:14pre_kickoffCurrent
Italy
68%+1pp
Draw
19%
Türkiye
13%-1pp
5 Oct · 06:01Initial
Italy
67%+8pp
Draw
19%-3pp
Türkiye
14%-5pp
2 Oct · 06:31initial
Italy
59%
Draw
22%
Türkiye
19%

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Italy vs Türkiye result & stats

Final score: Italy 3–1 Türkiye. Italy sit 3rd with 4 points from 3 games (1W 1D 1L) in the UEFA Nations League, while Türkiye are 4th with 0 points from 3 games (0W 0D 3L). Italy have won 1 of their last 3, while Türkiye are without a win in their last 3 matches. Italy average 0.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per game at home; Türkiye average 0.0 scored and 3.0 conceded away from home. The Goalytics AI model gives Italy a 68% chance of winning, a draw 19% and Türkiye 13%, favouring Italy to win with 73% confidence.

Italy and Türkiye statistics before kick-off
ItalyStatisticTürkiye
3rdLeague position4th
4Points0
1 / 1 / 1Won / Drawn / Lost0 / 0 / 3
+1Goal difference-7
1.7Goals scored per game0.3
1.3Goals conceded per game2.7
0Clean sheets0
1Failed to score2

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