FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen Prediction & Preview

Draw
Cautious · 58%
Bundesliga
Finished

Prediction

FSV Mainz 0523%
Draw41%
Bayer36%
Pick: Draw
Confidence
58

AI Analysis

Mainz and Leverkusen enter this match in nearly identical form, both scoring freely but also showing vulnerabilities, particularly in their respective home and away records. This balance, coupled with the tight implied odds from the Goalytics AI model, strongly suggests a closely contested draw.

Our AI breaks down recent form, head-to-head history, expected goals and team news to explain the pick. It weighs home advantage, injury impact and market movement to surface where the value sits — and where the risk hides.

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Prediction History3 versions

Mainz and Leverkusen enter this match in nearly identical form, both scoring freely but also showing vulnerabilities, particularly in their respective home and away records. This balance, coupled with the tight implied odds from the Goalytics AI model, strongly suggests a closely contested draw.

10 Oct · 13:04pre_kickoffCurrent
FSV Mainz 05
23%-1pp
Draw
41%
Bayer Leverkusen
36%+1pp
10 Oct · 06:02Initial
FSV Mainz 05
24%-10pp
Draw
41%+16pp
Bayer Leverkusen
35%-6pp
27 Sept · 06:33initial
FSV Mainz 05
34%
Draw
25%
Bayer Leverkusen
41%

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FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen result & stats

Final score: FSV Mainz 05 3–4 Bayer Leverkusen. FSV Mainz 05 sit 7th with 7 points from 4 games (2W 1D 1L) in the Bundesliga, while Bayer Leverkusen are 6th with 7 points from 4 games (2W 1D 1L). FSV Mainz 05 have won 2 of their last 4, while Bayer Leverkusen have won 2 of their last 4. FSV Mainz 05 average 0.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game at home; Bayer Leverkusen average 2.0 scored and 2.5 conceded away from home. FSV Mainz 05 have 6 players listed as injured or suspended, Bayer Leverkusen 4 players. The Goalytics AI model gives FSV Mainz 05 a 23% chance of winning, a draw 41% and Bayer Leverkusen 36%, favouring a draw with 58% confidence.

FSV Mainz 05 and Bayer Leverkusen statistics before kick-off
FSV Mainz 05StatisticBayer
7thLeague position6th
7Points7
2 / 1 / 1Won / Drawn / Lost2 / 1 / 1
+4Goal difference+5
2.5Goals scored per game2.5
1.5Goals conceded per game1.3
2Clean sheets2
1Failed to score0
6Injured / suspended4

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