FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin Prediction & Preview

FSV Mainz 05
Cautious · 62%
Bundesliga
Finished

Prediction

FSV Mainz 0548%
Draw40%
Union Berlin12%
Pick: FSV Mainz 05
Confidence
62

AI Analysis

FSV Mainz 05 enters this match with significantly better recent form and a slight edge in overall attacking and defensive capabilities compared to Union Berlin. Union's particularly poor away record combined with Mainz's improving momentum suggests the home side is well-positioned to secure a vital victory.

Our AI breaks down recent form, head-to-head history, expected goals and team news to explain the pick. It weighs home advantage, injury impact and market movement to surface where the value sits — and where the risk hides.

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Prediction History3 versions

FSV Mainz 05 enters this match with significantly better recent form and a slight edge in overall attacking and defensive capabilities compared to Union Berlin. Union's particularly poor away record combined with Mainz's improving momentum suggests the home side is well-positioned to secure a vital victory.

10 May · 17:27pre_kickoffCurrent
FSV Mainz 05
48%
Draw
40%
Union Berlin
12%
10 May · 06:57Initial
FSV Mainz 05
48%-4pp
Draw
40%+15pp
Union Berlin
12%-11pp
1 May · 06:57initial
FSV Mainz 05
52%
Draw
25%
Union Berlin
23%

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FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin result & stats

Final score: FSV Mainz 05 1–3 Union Berlin. FSV Mainz 05 sit 10th with 37 points from 32 games (9W 10D 13L) in the Bundesliga, while Union Berlin are 13th with 33 points from 32 games (8W 9D 15L). FSV Mainz 05 have won 2 of their last 5, while Union Berlin are without a win in their last 5 matches. FSV Mainz 05 average 1.3 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game; Union Berlin average 1.2 scored and 1.8 conceded. FSV Mainz 05 have 5 players listed as injured or suspended, Union Berlin 4 players. The Goalytics AI model gives FSV Mainz 05 a 48% chance of winning, a draw 40% and Union Berlin 12%, favouring FSV Mainz 05 to win with 62% confidence.

FSV Mainz 05 and Union Berlin statistics before kick-off
FSV Mainz 05StatisticUnion Berlin
10thLeague position13th
37Points33
9 / 10 / 13Won / Drawn / Lost8 / 9 / 15
-9Goal difference-20
1.3Goals scored per game1.2
1.6Goals conceded per game1.8
5Injured / suspended4

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