Newcastle vs Brighton Prediction & Preview

Draw
Cautious · 63%
Premier League
Finished
3:1

Prediction

Newcastle29%
Draw42%
Brighton29%
Pick: Draw
Confidence
63

AI Analysis

This match is poised for a draw, primarily due to Brighton's strong recent form and higher league position being somewhat offset by Newcastle's home advantage and a significant injury list for both sides. While Brighton looks the better team, their away record isn't as dominant, and Newcastle will be looking to stabilize at home amidst their poor run.

Our AI breaks down recent form, head-to-head history, expected goals and team news to explain the pick. It weighs home advantage, injury impact and market movement to surface where the value sits — and where the risk hides.

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Prediction History3 versions

This match is poised for a draw, primarily due to Brighton's strong recent form and higher league position being somewhat offset by Newcastle's home advantage and a significant injury list for both sides. While Brighton looks the better team, their away record isn't as dominant, and Newcastle will be looking to stabilize at home amidst their poor run.

2 May · 13:52pre_kickoffCurrent
Newcastle
29%-8pp
Draw
42%+16pp
Brighton
29%-8pp
2 May · 06:40Initial
Newcastle
37%-1pp
Draw
26%
Brighton
37%+1pp
30 Apr · 06:56initial
Newcastle
38%
Draw
26%
Brighton
36%

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Newcastle vs Brighton result & stats

Final score: Newcastle 3–1 Brighton. Newcastle sit 15th with 42 points from 34 games (12W 6D 16L) in the Premier League, while Brighton are 6th with 50 points from 34 games (13W 11D 10L). Newcastle have won 1 of their last 5, while Brighton have won 4 of their last 5. Newcastle average 1.4 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game; Brighton average 1.4 scored and 1.1 conceded. Newcastle have 4 players listed as injured or suspended, Brighton 5 players. The Goalytics AI model gives Newcastle a 29% chance of winning, a draw 42% and Brighton 29%, favouring a draw with 63% confidence.

Newcastle and Brighton statistics before kick-off
NewcastleStatisticBrighton
15thLeague position6th
42Points50
12 / 6 / 16Won / Drawn / Lost13 / 11 / 10
-4Goal difference+9
1.4Goals scored per game1.4
1.5Goals conceded per game1.1
4Injured / suspended5

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